Earthquake

Signs and warnings

Malé, the capital of Maldives, was severely hit.Despite a lag of up to several hours between the earthquake and the impact of the tsunami, nearly all of the victims were taken completely by surprise; there were no tsunami warning systems in the Indian Ocean to detect tsunamis, and equally importantly, warn the general populace living around the ocean quickly. Tsunami detection is not easy because while a tsunami is in deep water it has a very low height and a network of sensors is needed to detect it. Setting up the communications infrastructure to issue timely warnings is an even bigger problem [49] (http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn6839).

Scientists were also hampered because the initial estimate for the magnitude of the earthquake was 8.1. The determination that the earthquake had actually been much stronger (and the resulting tsunami much larger) was not made until after the tsunami had already struck.

Tsunamis usually occur in the Pacific Ocean due to earthquakes in the "Ring of Fire", and an effective tsunami warning system has long been in place there. Although the extreme western edge of the "Ring of Fire" extends into the Indian Ocean (the point where this earthquake struck), no warning system exists in that ocean because tsunamis there are relatively rare; the last major one was caused by the Krakatoa eruption of 1883.

In the aftermath of the disaster there is a new awareness of the need for a tsunami warning system for the Indian Ocean. The UN has started working on an Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System and aims to have initial steps in place by end 2005 [50] (http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=12932&Cr=tsunami&Cr1=). Some have even proposed creating a unified global tsunami warning system, to include the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean. See International Early Warning Programme.

However on 28th March 2005, an 8.7 seaquake in roughly the same area failed to produce killer tsunamis. This earthquake is ranked as the 7th largest in the world. So if it fails to produce killer tides, it makes it seem as if it would require extreme and unlikely events to cause another one in this region. More so than the 7th largest earthquake since 1900.

See also the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami timeline, a minute to minute account by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Unfamiliarity with warning signs

Maximum recession of tsunami waters at Kata Noi Beach, Thailand, before the 3rd, and strongest, tsunami wave (sea visible in the right corner).The first warning sign of a possible tsunami is the earthquake itself; however, tsunamis can strike thousands of miles away, where the earthquake is only felt weakly or not at all. Also, in the minutes preceding a tsunami strike the sea often recedes temporarily from the coast. People in Pacific regions are more familiar with tsunamis and often recognize this phenomenon as a sign to head for higher ground. However, around the Indian Ocean, this rare sight reportedly induced people, especially children, to visit the coast to investigate and collect stranded fish on as much as 2.5 km (1.6 miles) of exposed beach, with fatal results [51] (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4246573).

One of the few coastal areas to evacuate ahead of the tsunami was on the Indonesian island of Simeulue, very close to the epicentre. Island folklore recounted an earthquake and tsunami in 1907 and the islanders fled to inland hills after the initial shaking — before the tsunami struck [52] (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,18690-1422835,00.html). On Maikhao beach in northern Phuket, Thailand, a 10 year old British girl named Tilly Smith had studied tsunamis in geography class at school and recognised the warning sign of the receding ocean. She and her parents warned others on the beach, which was evacuated safely [53] (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/01/01/ugeog.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/01/01/ixportaltop.html).

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